Winning at poker | Grapeswriting2

Winning at Poker ("He's either got it or he hasn't...")

If you play a bit of poker and have a half decent understanding of the game, it really isn’t that difficult to make a little money playing. Maybe not enough to retire on (you have to be particularly good and have extremely deep pockets to play for serious money) but it is certainly possible to win a little pocket money while at the same time having some fun.

I have been playing for a number of years and have played well in excess of a thousand online tournaments, consistently returning a small but healthy profit. I had a little break from playing and came back to the game recently, put $20 into two different accounts (I play online in 888 and PokerStars) and in about ten days of playing, my combined balance was $180.

I thought I would offer a mixture of tips, observations and personal rules that I employ to give myself the best chance of success. I will assume that you understand the basics of play and the ranking of hands; if you don’t then you really shouldn’t be considering playing for money!

1 Type of game

All this advice relates, predominantly, to single table ‘sit and go’ tournaments, six, nine or ten seated, playing Texas Hold-em. If you want to make money consistently I find that it is the smaller events with smaller prizes but fewer participants that offer the best chance. You won’t win big, but if you play consistently you will win often. Slow but sure accumulation is the way to go. Multi-table events, while also requiring your luck to hold for a much longer period of time, also require you to concentrate and play solid poker for significantly longer periods. Yes, the final placings pay well, but unless you are particularly gifted you will rarely get there.

2 Mind-set

So before you pick a tournament you need to make sure that you are ready to play. Do you have sufficient time to complete the tournament? I tend to play ‘Turbo’ nine seated tournaments (because they pay three places whereas the six seated ones only pay two) which generally take 30-45 minutes. Don’t start a game if you are doing something else at the same time, expecting a telephone call, watching television or dinner is due to be served. You will not consistently do well if you cannot concentrate properly for the whole game. Are you in the right mind-set? Poker needs a calm calculating approach. A poker player who has lost the ability to think rationally is said to be ‘on tilt’; meaning that they are playing erratically and making poor choices. While dangerous, these players can be taken down relatively easily with a little patience. Don’t let that player be you. Don’t play if you are upset, angry, frustrated, tired etc. You will make bad decisions and bad decisions cost tournaments, very quickly.

3 Pick a tournament

So you are calm, alert, you have time and you are ready to play. You now need to pick the right game for you. If you are playing a single table tournament there are normally various types on offer, including: ‘normal’, ‘turbo’ and ‘hyper’. The difference is the rate at which the blinds increase and consequently the length of the game. The faster the game that you play, the less opportunity you have to wait for good cards and more bluffing and risky play is required. As said, I prefer the turbo version, which I find allows sufficient time for proper play but doesn’t drag on too long, but you need to work out what type suits your game the best.

Then you need to choose what buy-in you play. As a general rule, you should never buy-in to a tournament with more than 10% of your bankroll. So if you have $30 in your account I wouldn’t recommend playing more than a $3 game. The reason for this is that despite all the skill involved, this is still also a game of chance and even the best players hit losing runs. It happens. Make sure your bankroll can absorb it.

Also, as a general rule, the quality of opponent increases along with the buy-in price. Fifty cent and one dollar games will have a healthy share of fish and pure gamblers that go all-in on the first hand. At three dollars more players know what they are doing. Five dollar buy-ins is a better standard again and is in truth the highest level that I can win consistently. Find the right level for yourself and don’t play above your level. It can be tempting to dip your toes into a higher stakes game, but this should be avoided, because:

Most of your opponents will be better than you.
If the amount you are playing for on a single game matters to you, it will change how you play.

4 Gameplay

So you have picked your game and the first hands are being dealt. What do you need to do to succeed?

5 The first phase

Firstly and most importantly you need a decent understanding of odds and an ability to change gear. When the game starts in a nine player game, you need to remember that the odds say that you will only have the best cards on average one in nine hands. Now there are other ways to win a hand with bluffs (more on that later) but you are unlikely to bluff nine players as someone almost certainly has a hand. So (and I cannot stress this enough) in the first phase, you should limit your participation massively. If you choose to call even small bets or the blinds with marginal hands, your stack will deplete pretty rapidly. Protect it during this part of the game. I tend to play the absolute premium hands only, unless I am on or immediately right of the button, in which case I might dabble on slightly lesser hands if there are no raises and few callers. In general I will not play marginal hands like K/10, Q/J, A/anything under J.

Your position in relation to the dealer button is absolutely key in this phase. If you are 'on the button' you are in the best position. You have the advantage of seeing how every player acts before it is your turn. This gives you the opportunity to get out of the way of any large raises without betting first. It also allows you to attack the blinds or play more marginal cards if no one else has raised. The further to the right of the button you are, the weaker your position becomes. Unplayable cards in early position (a long way from the button) may well be worth a bet on the button if there have been no raises.

Stay patient. The blinds are small. Wait for the right cards and the right time to play anything at all. Golden rule #1 – the VERY worst hand in poker is the second best hand. You won’t lose money on bad hands (unless you get caught making a huge bluff). But you can lose big or go bust if you have the second best hand. For this reason don’t play hands that have a higher probability of being second best. Example - you play Q/10 and hit a Q. You have top pair, so it is easy to get carried away. But another player could have J/Q, K/Q, A/Q, Q/Q or even Q and paired their kicker and you can take a big hit.

If there is little action and you want to play a marginal hand, it is better to play one that is less likely to leave you second best. You either hit or you can get out of the way. Suited connectors (looking for flushes and straights) and small pairs (hoping to hit trips) when you are in late position (i.e. near or on the button) are great for this. Example - you have a pair of 5s. The ‘Flop’ comes down K/Q/5. Now there are a huge range of hands that you can dominate where the opponent might reasonably believe they are best. If they hold A/K, A/Q, K/J and K/Q in particular you can probably clean up. Even better if they are loose and they have played K or Q with a lower card and they have paired their kicker for two pair. These are the situations where you can increase your stack significantly and you must take full advantage with good betting.

Don’t panic if other players start building big chip leads; this is in part good news providing it is at the expense of other players and not you. Obviously you want to accumulate as many chips as you can, but ultimately your first aim is to make the final five when you can start to play more hands and mix it up. Your second aim is top three and to get paid and finally, obviously, to win. So don't take risks too early, play safe and get yourself into the mix later on.

But back to the early stages. You will also find that the more erratic players will show themselves early in the tournament. Don’t engage with them unless you have something exceptional, because: Golden rule #2 - bad players can still hit good cards. And because they are bad players you have no chance of making a read. Once you have seen someone bluff hyper-aggressively three or four times it is the easiest thing in the world to let yourself believe that every bet they make is a bluff. And even if it is, let someone else call their nth all-in. Even bad cards can still put you out. 7/2 off suit beats A/K suited over 30% of the time. You don’t need to take that gamble.

Protect your chips, play tight and watch others self-destruct, you only need to win one or two moderate hands to be in a decent position for the next phase. At the same time watch your opponents. Who has cards when they bet? Who is bluffing? Who makes bad calls? Look for players that call a $20 blind, then get raised to $180 and call it again. Classic fish. If they thought their cards were worth $180 they should have initially raised to push others off the pot. If they didn't then they shouldn't have called the raise. Try and identify who is loose and who is tight? You can even start trying to work out exactly what cards certain players are holding as a hand progresses. The more you get right the more confident you will become in your ability to read players. It is all useful information for when you come to engage more in the next phase.

6 The mid-game

As the game comes down to six, and especially five and four players you can now get involved and can play a wider range of hands. Still try and avoid those that can leave you second best but you can certainly relax your starting requirements. If you have been particularly tight you can bluff a little now too to pick off blinds and weak bets. However you must be careful with bluffing. Don’t just fall upon a ‘bet’ reflex, hitting the minimum raise in response to a call or a check on a weak table. Players can smell that, you need to be more inventive or you will find yourself being check raised and in deep trouble. Think about what hand you are representing and how you would actually play it. A decent raise of 3 or 4 times the big blind pre-flop is more likely to be successful. If a bluff gets called, look at the board. What do they have? Are they drawing? If you have a read on the opponent, and especially if you are semi-bluffing with a mid-hand or are drawing yourself, then consider firing again, make it expensive for them to see the next card. However, it is very easy to get called bluffing and it can knock a huge hole in your stack, so you do need to be very careful.

Hopefully you have been paying attention to your opponents. Some poker sites give you the opportunity to mark them, either with some kind of symbol or even making notes against their ID. Then if you play them again, you (and only you) can see these notes. I tend to record good solid players (so you can give them the required respect), fish (those that have no clue) and some others that bluff a lot or are hyper-aggressive. Even without this, observe how your opponents play. Who plays a lot of hands, who plays super tight? Who has been caught bluffing? There is going to come a time when you have to gamble and this is the where concentration matters. Yes, you can play poker while doing something else, but if you do you will only play your own cards and not your opponents. To play properly you should feel that you know a little about their play for the later stages of the game, because when the time comes you want to be gambling against the right people. It also helps you choose who you should and shouldn’t be bluffing against.

Keep an eye on chip counts too. Players at each end of the chip count are very dangerous. The chip leader can afford to call down your bluffs, play more marginal hands and will probably bully the table to pick up weak bets and blinds. The short stacked players on the other hand will be looking for any opportunity to go all in to double up. This makes bluffing (or indeed entering a pot) against either potentially dangerous and should be done very cautiously.

On the other hand, in this phase, you might encounter players ‘playing for the bubble’. You may find some of the middle stacks start playing very tight, hoping that others will get knocked out and they make at least third place and therefore profit. This is of course everyone’s aim, but if you make it too obvious your blinds will be attacked relentlessly and you can slip out of contention. If you sense that you are being attacked in this way you have to be prepared to come back over the top if someone is trying to steal. It is better to attack those looking to hang on than be attacked yourself. If a game has four players left with chip stacks 5500, you on 4500, 2000 and 400, with blinds of 150/300 and you raise to 1500 (ideally after 5500 and 400 fold) it takes a very strong will for Mr or Mrs 2000 to call or raise that bet knowing that they are maybe only one or two hands from the money. I won't say it will never happen but nine out of ten times I would expect a fold. Mixing caution with well-timed aggression with the right cards is the key to surviving this stage.

It is worth noting that the later a tournament goes the less important the button becomes. In the early stages it is a massive advantage to be playing late as you will have the knowledge of what every opponent has already done. If someone has already gone all in you know not to play your suited 5/6. However with fewer and fewer players, it becomes more and more likely that no one has a hand. In this situation it is often the case that the first to bet takes the pot, so acting early rather than late can become advantageous.

7 Final stages

You have done it, with a mixture of sensible caution, playing the right cards and targeted aggression, you have made the final three. Well done. But third isn’t good enough; that’s quite a small return on your investment. You now need to win. You may recall that I mentioned the need to change gear, and if you haven’t already it’s time to hit top gear now. A three way game, especially once the blinds are high is a very, very different game. Many hands are won and lost pre flop. Again, you can relax your starting hand requirements. Cards that were unplayable with nine around the table can easily be winning cards now. The key here is now either to be out of a hand or to be in and aggressive, without being absurd. For the most part, forget the call button. This advice applies to all phases of the game, but none more so than now. Golden Rule #3 - there are two ways to win a poker hand; to have the best cards, or to make the opponent fold. If you only ever ‘call’ you are eliminating fifty percent of the ways to win the hand. Use the raise button often to test your opponent. Make them pay to see the next card. Not every time, you need to call and fold occasionally so as not to be predictable, but you want to be as aggressive as the table allows.

In this stage things can change very quickly. You need to try and keep ahead of the game. If you fall significantly behind you need to look to go all in and double up as soon as you can. Once your stack is under ten big blinds you should be urgently looking for an all-in opportunity and when it is under five you should be shoving your chips in on a high card. This is an extremely unpredictable volatile stage of the game and while aggression may pay dividends, ultimately you are in the hands of the poker Gods and will probably have to ride your luck on more than one occasion.

8 Heads-up

If your luck holds and you make the final two, then this stage is simply an extension of the previous. Cards have a reduced say again in deciding a hand. It is much more about the betting. Again, I don’t call often. It is raise, raise, raise, whenever I think I can, with an occasional fold. I want the opponent to have to make a decision with every single hand. Most of the time you may have nothing, but chances are neither do they. It is very hard to call a raise with 7/4 off-suit, even if you think your opponent is bluffing. As before, it is often the first to put chips on the table that wins the hand the majority of the time. If they come back at you, you have to decide whether to go all the way or let the hand go. Holding A/anything or any pair pre flop is normally worth an all-in at this stage. If you can get two-thirds to one-third chip stack ahead they are in trouble and once you are past three-quarters to a quarter it should just be a matter of time. Eventually you will reach a point where both of you are prepared to put all your chips on the table. And you cross your fingers and hope the poker Gods are smiling on you.

Extra tips

9 Know your odds

As I said at the start you need a decent understanding of odds and probability to be a good player. If you have the best hand then your decision is simply how to play it to get the best return. Is there a draw on the board that would beat you if it hits? Then make it expensive for the opponent to see the next card. If you have the nuts then maybe slow play or even check to let them make a hand and see if they try and steal. Then you can call through to the river and then come over the top.

If you are drawing to the best hand however you need to know the odds of hitting your card(s) as opposed to the odds that you are getting for your bet. If you are drawing to a flush you will have a number of outs and with two cards to come you may have about 35% chance of hitting your hand (marginally better than 3-1). So if there is 600 in the pot and a single opponent bets 300 it is probably worth calling 300 to be involved since you will make about 3-1 on your bet. If there is 200 in the pot and an opponent bets 500, it isn’t worth the call since you won’t be getting 3-1 on your investment. However you also need to consider other factors such as multiple players in a hand and ‘implied odds’. Implied odds are how your return might change if there are future bets in subsequent rounds of betting.

Now I am not suggesting you need to become a mathematical genius to work all this out in your head, for the most part it isn’t necessary. It is often very obvious whether calling (or raising) a bet is good or bad value. But it is important, especially when you are drawing, that you think about how many ‘out’ cards will make your hand, what kind of likelihood you have of making the hand and whether the pot makes the bet worthwhile. Taking bets at good odds and refusing bad ones is the essence of a good poker player.

10 Don’t be obvious

There is a very simple guide to remember when playing low-level poker. It is said that an average poker player acts strong when he is weak and acts weak when he is strong. It is surprising how often this is the case.

There is nothing wrong with slow playing a great hand, but equally sometimes it is much easier to simply bet on good cards and fold bad ones. It is very easy to get caught up in all the complexities but ultimately if you follow this single mantra you won’t go far wrong.

The key though is not to be predictable. Just as you are trying to work out your opponents, they are also trying to work out you. Mix your play up. Don’t always raise three times the big blind. Be unpredictable so they don’t know what you have.

Try and build a strong table image. I like to show cards to do this. Now this isn't always recommended, but if I hit a succession of strong hands and the table folds several times in a row I might show them so they don't think I am bluffing. I want to build an image of a player that is solid and doesn’t play rubbish. I don’t want people coming over the top of me and making hands more expensive than I want them to be. It is better to win a small pot than lose a big one. Once I have built that image I also have two or three bluffs in the bank that probably won’t get called, which is very useful for when I want to change gears. I rarely show a bluff. If someone has just raised into you 4 times the BB and shown you Aces or Kings after your fold, it takes a lot of nerve to call them down a few hands later if they raise into you the same way.

11 Playing particular types of players

While there is emphasis on playing your own game in this guidance, there will be circumstances whereby you need to adapt. Again, easy to remember, it is often best to play tight against loose players and loose against tight players. There is no point trying to be aggressive against a player raising every bet and going all in frequently. You will simply bleed your chips away. Just sit tight and wait for the cards to take him down (or even better let someone else do it for you). Equally, if your opponent rarely calls a bet or sees a flop, then raise them frequently and pick up the blinds. Be aware though that they are waiting for premium cards so if they do engage they must be treated with extreme caution.

12 Other hints and tips

Remember there is a huge difference between going all-in and calling an all-in. By going all in you have two ways to win the hand (best cards / opponent folds) but in calling, you HAVE to have the best cards. Frequently calling an all-in with A/K pre-flop (certainly early in a tournament) is a passport to an early exit - all you actually have is a high card. However - if you are in the final stages the situation is rather different and a call with A/K may well be the best play.

Following on from that, don't call all-ins, or even large raises with a draw, unless you are deep into the game and have to gamble. You have no hand and are trusting too much to luck to survive long with that strategy. To call an all in your hand really should be already made. If you are on a draw you really want to see the remaining cards as cheaply as possible, unless you want to bully your opponents off the hand with a semi bluff raise; for example if you hold a high spade and hit three on the flop, a decent raise would represent the flush and may well take the hand, but giving you outs even if you are called. In short - raising with draws can be a decent play, but don't call unless pot odds (section 9) are in your favour.

Analyse your game and don't beat yourself up if you make the right decision and get unlucky. Sometimes it simply won't be your day. If you find yourself making silly decisions that cost chips by all means identify them and adjust your play accordingly.

It is recommended to keep a record of your games, recording amount spent against winnings and how you lost when it happens. This lets you identify patterns. Are you too passive and getting blinded away? Too aggressive? Chasing unlikely hands too often? Bluffing too much? Or not enough? This is something that I personally don't do, although I do keep a running tally in my head and am quite self-critical when I lose, but you may find that doing this helps you fine-tune your game.

Understand that different sites may attract players with different styles of play. In my case I find that the players on 888 (at the level I play) are significantly looser than on PokerStars. Early tournament if I make a 3 x big blind bet on PokerStars I will frequently see the whole table fold. In 888 I might get three or four callers. I have no idea why this, is but I am aware of it and adjust my playing style accordingly.

13 Don’t stress about bad players and bad beats

Let’s get one thing straight. You are going to get bad beats, over and over again. Some players misunderstand odds. If you are an 80-20 favourite then you will lose that hand one in five times. Yet players react as if the impossible has happened. Being favourite does not mean that you will win the hand.

It can be more frustrating still when players make calls they really shouldn’t and hit miracle turns and rivers to steal a hand and sometimes eliminate you. As an example, recently I was heads up, on A/A. I had bet pre-flop hard. He called it. After a multi suit 2/6/10 flop I went all in. He called on an inside straight draw, holding 7/9. It was a ridiculous call, truly appalling play, and he hit his 8 and I was knocked out. He called a large raise with 7/9. Then he called an all-in with a 9% chance of hitting his card. Ninety-one times out of one hundred I should win. But here’s the thing. Those nine times out of one hundred do happen. They happen nine times out of a hundred funnily enough, almost ten percent of the time. So you will get them, often, if you play a lot of hands. And when they happen, while obviously frustrating, you need to remember one thing. That player, the one that calls a ten percent chance on a fifty-fifty bet is the reason that you, over the course of a year, will make money. It is the bad players that over time will line the pockets of the good players. So don’t abuse him in chat, if there is one. Give him the thumbs up, tell him he’s a great player, mark him as a fish and hope you draw him again.

It goes without saying that if you are steaming from a bad beat, YOU SHOULD NOT re-enter another tournament immediately. You will be too aggressive, probably on tilt, and you will get knocked out early and compound your loss. Before EVERY game, return to section two of this article.

14 Summary

So now you know how to win at poker. If you play for fun but take it seriously you should make money over the long term. There are enough bad players out there to enable the slightly better than average player to make a tidy profit. But remember there is still a significant element of chance and sometimes it is simply not your day. You will have losing streaks. But if you stick by the basics you should do okay. In general:

In nine or ten player tournaments be super tight early and aggressive late on.
Bet on good cards and fold bad ones.
Don’t bet big on ‘second best’ hands.
Don’t play predictably; mix it up without taking undue risks.
Always try and work out what your opponents are holding even when you aren’t in the hand. Try and deduce how they bet on good cards, draws and bluffs.
Know your odds, take good bets and fold bad ones.
Don’t play for amounts of money that matter to you.
The moment you stop enjoying it, stop.

And finally - the single most important rule:

IF YOU CAN’T SPOT THE FISH AT THE TABLE, IT’S YOU!!!!! :-)

AG - 18/02/2021

Postscript...

One more true story. On the day after I wrote this I am clinging on in a tournament with four or five players left, getting short stacked and blinded away. I have to make my stand. I finally got something playable and shoved all my chips in on a pair of 9s. I get called and the opponent has two kings. I am not in good shape. He is over an 80% favourite. Then the flop comes down. 2, 3, king. Trip kings vs two 9s. I am dead. I don't know the odds but helpfully the game tells me that he is a 99.9% favourite. I have a one in a thousand chance of staying alive. Basically, no chance! The turn comes a 9. His odds reduce to 97.5% favourite. The river comes and it is the final 9. I had to hit the only two cards in the deck that would beat him and it happened. My quad nines beat his three kings, he goes on tilt and I take him out a few hands later and I go on to win the tournament. I actually felt sorry for him! It just goes to show, with all the tactics and smart play in the world, sometimes it simply boils down to whether it's your day or not.

Note - the advice offered on this page is the opinion of the author based on personal experience and it must always be remembered that poker is a game of chance and there are no guarantees. Anyone playing poker for money does so at their own risk and the author takes no responsibility for any losses incurred.